More than 59 million German citizens are eligible to vote, including 2.3 million first-time voters and over 7 million with migrant backgrounds
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| Germany Elections |
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats lead with 29%, the far-right AfD has emerged as Germany's second strongest political force at 21%, and Chancellor Scholz's SPD lags behind at 16%
No party is projected to win an absolute majority and complex negotiations are expected ahead, with a coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats appearing most likely
BERLIN
German voters will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, with the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) widely predicted to return to power after over three years in opposition.
Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU is currently leading the polls with 29%, putting them nearly 14 percentage points ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, Merz is unlikely to secure an absolute majority in parliament.
According to the latest Forsa Institute poll, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to 21%, strengthening its position as the country's second-strongest political force. The anti-immigrant party, however, has no path to power since all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with them.
Analysts see a coalition government between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats as the most likely outcome, but with a large number of undecided voters and Germany's complex electoral system, the final distribution of parliamentary seats remains uncertain.
According to a survey released on Thursday, nearly 27% of voters were still undecided about whether to cast their vote or which party to support.
Who is voting?
More than 59 million German citizens are eligible to vote, including 2.3 million first-time voters, according to official data. The electorate leans heavily on the older side, with 42% of voters aged 60 or above, compared to just 13% under 30.
Over 7 million eligible voters have immigrant backgrounds, including more than 1 million German citizens of Turkish origin.
Over the years, voter turnout has been higher among older voters, but consistently lower among young people and those with migrant backgrounds.
Overall voter turnout in the 2021 parliamentary elections reached 76.6%, but declined to 64.8% in the 2024 European Parliament elections.
How does the German election system work?
Germany's chancellor is elected indirectly, with voters choosing new parliament members, who then pick the new chancellor with a vote among themselves.
If the winning party secures a majority in parliament, or manages to build a coalition government with an absolute majority, its candidate becomes the country's next chancellor.
Germany uses a mixed voting system where each citizen casts two ballots. With their first vote, they choose a specific candidate to represent their local district. Their second vote supports a political party, which plays a bigger role since it decides how many seats each party gets in parliament.
Political parties need to win either 5% of total votes or three direct district seats to enter parliament. This threshold prevents the fragmentation of parliament by excluding very small parties.
Who are the main parties?
In total, this election has drawn 4,506 candidates competing for 630 parliamentary seats.
Female representation has slightly decreased, with women making up 1,422 candidates (32%), down from 33% – 2,024 of 6,211 – in 2021.
Of the 29 political parties running for parliamentary seats, only six are polling comfortably above the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
The CDU/CSU alliance, SPD, AfD, Greens, and socialist Die Linke (The Left) are on course to clear the mark.
The liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed, left-populist BSW are hovering around 5%, leaving their parliamentary futures uncertain.
If both the FDP and BSW do make it through, it could complicate Merz's coalition-building plans.
The CDU/CSU would then need to form a three-party coalition, as mainstream parties like the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats would control fewer seats.
Who could be the next chancellor?
A recent survey by public broadcaster ZDF has shown that conservative chancellor candidate Merz holds stronger approval ratings than incumbent Chancellor Scholz.
When asked about their preferred candidate, 32% of respondents chose Merz, while Scholz was at 18%. The Greens' candidate Robert Habeck also outperformed Scholz, with 21% preferring him as the next chancellor.
Meanwhile, AfD's co-chair and chancellor candidate Alice Weidel was preferred by 14% of respondents, while 15% of those surveyed were undecided or declined to choose.
What are the Christian Democrats offering?
Merz, 69, has made the country's struggling economy and mass migration the central focus of his election campaign.
To revive Europe's largest economy, he has proposed business-friendly policies: lowering corporate tax rates, securing affordable energy, and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany's reindustrialization through digitalization.
He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while also accelerating deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.
Merz has declared that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will face deportation to their home countries.
He draws strong support from male voters but faces opposition from female voters, who view his political style as arrogant and dismissive toward women. His backing among young voters is even lower at 13%.
Merz also faces low approval ratings among voters in East German federal states, where the AfD maintains its strongest support base.
source: aa